S&P 500 Weekly Market Insights - Week of September 7th

# Weekly Market Analysis: S&P 500 Outlook for the Week of September 7, 2025

Welcome back to the Hobbs Trades weekly newsletter! As your go-to market analyst here at [www.hobbstrades.com](http://www.hobbstrades.com), I'm diving into the S&P 500 index as we head into the trading week starting September 8, 2025. Following a volatile session post-jobs data, expect focus on inflation metrics that could sway broad market sentiment amid rate cut bets and economic uncertainties. The S&P 500 closed the prior week with a modest dip, but year-to-date resilience suggests potential for stabilization if data aligns favorably. Let's break it down.

## Recent Performance Recap

The S&P 500 index wrapped up the week ending September 5 on a down note, closing at 6,481.50, down 20.58 points or -0.32% from the previous day. This represented a weekly pullback amid mixed labor signals, with the index slipping approximately 0.3% on Friday alone following a soft jobs report. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has advanced around 19.84%, driven by tech and growth sectors despite recent rotations.

Looking at monthly trends, August posted a gain of 1.91%, building on earlier strength but facing headwinds from sector shifts and policy expectations. Valuations remain elevated, with a forward P/E ratio around 22-23, above historical averages, reflecting growth premiums but prompting caution if earnings growth slows. Recent X discussions highlight milestones like Robinhood's inclusion in the S&P 500 and debates on Strategy's exclusion, alongside reactions to the jobs data impacting sentiment.

## Key Price Levels for S&P Futures (ES)

ES futures, tracking the S&P 500, closed at 6,489.75 for the September contract, consolidating after recent volatility. Watch these technical levels for potential moves:

- **Support Levels**:

- Immediate: 6,444 (recent low from September 5).

- Next: 6,399–6,447 (confluence of swing lows and pivot points).

- Deeper: 6,314 (potential retracement if inflation data surprises higher).

- **Resistance Levels**:

- Immediate: 6,508–6,532 (prior highs from late August).

- Next: 6,584 (short-term target).

- Major: 6,580–6,648 (higher resistance zones).

A rebound above 6,532 could signal upside momentum on cooler CPI, while a break below 6,444 might accelerate risk-off flows.

## SPY ETF Options Chain Insights

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), a key proxy for S&P exposure, displays cautious options activity heading into the week. Due to data limitations on post-September 6 expirations, insights focus on recent patterns indicating balanced flow with hedging evident. SPY closed aligned with the index at levels suggesting strikes around 640-650.

- **High Open Interest Calls** (Bullish Focus):

- Strike 640: High OI and volume noted in recent chains, IV ~8-10%.

- Strike 645: Elevated activity, last prices subdued.

- Strike 650: OTM focus with lower premiums.

- **High Open Interest Puts** (Defensive Focus):

- Strike 630: Defensive positioning with higher IV skew.

- Strike 640: ATM hedging evident.

- Strike 620: Deeper protection strikes.

Implied volatility (IV) remains low around 9-12% for at-the-money strikes, signaling moderated expectations short-term, with put skew hinting at downside concerns amid data risks. Volume suggests positioning for contained moves; monitor rollovers to monthly expirations.

## Economic Events to Watch This Week

This week's spotlight is on inflation, which could influence S&P volatility given broad economic ties. Key highlights:

- **Monday, September 8**: No major releases.

- **Tuesday, September 9**: NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00 ET).

- **Wednesday, September 10**: CPI (8:30 ET), expected 2.9% YoY; Core CPI 0.3% MoM.

- **Thursday, September 11**: PPI (8:30 ET), Jobless Claims (8:30 ET).

- **Friday, September 12**: Consumer Sentiment (10:00 ET).

U.S. data dominates, with CPI as the pivot—benign reads could fuel rate cut optimism and market gains.

## Outlook for the Week

Short-term risks from inflation prints and September's historical weakness persist, but the S&P 500's YTD strength positions it for potential 8-18% further gains into year-end if Fed easing supports earnings and small-cap rotations continue. Bullish above 6,444 with breaks toward 6,532; bearish below on sticky CPI, potentially testing 15% corrections. Options indicate hedged positioning for increased volatility, but surprises could spark larger swings.

*Data as of September 6, 2025. Not financial advice—always do your own research.*