Market Insights - Week of November 9th

# Major Indices Outlook for the Week Ahead

Welcome back to the Hobbs Trades weekly newsletter! As your go-to market analyst here at www.hobbstrades.com, I'm providing a comprehensive overview of the major indices—S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000—as we enter the trading week starting November 10, 2025. Last week's election outcome and a dovish FOMC 25bps rate cut ignited a broad rally, with small caps and cyclicals leading the charge amid pro-growth policy optimism. With CPI data and Veterans Day holiday disruptions ahead, expect volatility as markets digest inflation trends and tariff implications. Broader trends are firmly bullish, but overbought signals and trade risks warrant caution. Let's break it down.

## Recent Performance Recap

Major indices surged post-election, fueled by a clear policy mandate and Fed easing. The **S&P 500** closed at 6,781.24, up 1.47% for the week, hitting fresh highs with broad sector gains. The **Nasdaq 100** climbed to 25,132.76, gaining 1.36% weekly, driven by tech rebounds but tempered by valuation concerns, with YTD returns near 23%. The **Dow Jones** soared to 46,824.19, up 1.12% for the week, lifted by industrials and financials. The **Russell 2000** stole the spotlight at 2,512.94, surging 1.43% daily and 1.38% weekly, pushing its YTD gain to 14.2% on rotation momentum.

October's 1.8% S&P gain set a strong tone, with November's early rally defying seasonality. Valuations remain elevated—S&P at 23x forward earnings, Nasdaq at 28x—but 8% projected 2025 EPS growth and sustained easing bolster upside. Recent X chatter buzzes with post-election enthusiasm, traders eyeing Nasdaq at 25,500 and Russell breakouts to 2,550, though tariff and inflation risks spark debate.

## Key Price Levels for Futures

Futures trade at elevated levels post-rally, with CPI and policy headlines as catalysts. Here's what to watch for each index:

* **S&P 500 (ES Futures)**: Trading around 6,781, support near 6,750 (recent low), with cushions at 6,720–6,730 and deeper 6,680 if selling emerges. Resistance at 6,800–6,820 (recent highs), targeting 6,850 or 6,880 on bullish flows.

* **Nasdaq 100 (NQ Futures)**: Near 25,133, support at 25,000, with 24,900–24,950 and 24,700 below. Resistance at 25,200 and 25,300 could unlock 25,500 if tech sustains momentum.

* **Dow Jones (YM Futures)**: Around 46,824, support at 46,600, with 46,400–46,500 and 46,100 as zones. Resistance at 46,900 and 47,000 may lead to 47,200 on cyclical strength.

* **Russell 2000 (RTY Futures)**: At 2,513, support at 2,490, with 2,470–2,480 and 2,450 deeper. Resistance at 2,530 and 2,550 opens paths to 2,600+ on small-cap fervor.

Breakouts above resistances could extend gains on tame CPI; breaches below supports may trigger profit-taking.

## ETF Options Chain Insights

Options flow reflects post-election exuberance, with heavy volume on November expirations (November 14, 2025) amid hedges for CPI and tariffs. Implied volatility eases to 12-18% ATM, but put skew persists on trade risks. Key high open interest strikes:

* **SPY (S&P 500)**: Closed ~678. Calls at 680 (OI ~10,500, vol 58,000, IV ~14.5%) signal upside bets; puts at 670 (OI ~8,800, vol 42,000, IV ~16.8%) show hedging. Call bias on rally momentum.

* **QQQ (Nasdaq 100)**: Closed ~605. Calls at 610 (OI ~2,600, vol 62,000, IV ~17.0%) capture tech optimism; puts at 600 (OI ~7,800, vol 50,000, IV ~19.2%) guard valuations. Put skew on policy uncertainty.

* **DIA (Dow Jones)**: Closed ~468. Calls at 470 (OI ~4,500, vol 350, IV ~15.0%) eye cyclical gains; puts at 465 (OI ~1,200, vol 800, IV ~16.5%) balance flows. Calls lead on policy hopes.

* **IWM (Russell 2000)**: Closed ~251. Calls at 255 (OI ~2,200, vol 6,500, IV ~18.5%) bet on breakouts; puts at 250 (OI ~3,600, vol 4,500, IV ~20.8%) reflect policy sensitivity. Elevated put IV on rotation.

Calls dominate, but OTM put skew signals caution—braced for data-driven swings.

## Economic Events to Watch This Week

CPI headlines a holiday-shortened week, testing inflation trends amid policy shifts. Key highlights:

* **Monday, November 10**: No major releases; Fed speakers parse election impact.

* **Tuesday, November 11**: Veterans Day—markets closed; bond markets open.

* **Wednesday, November 12**: CPI (8:30 ET), consensus 2.5% YoY core; PPI (8:30 ET).

* **Thursday, November 13**: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 ET), consensus 230K; Consumer Sentiment (10:00 ET).

* **Friday, November 14**: Retail Sales (8:30 ET), consensus +0.3% MoM; Industrial Production (9:15 ET).

Tariff talks escalate globally, but U.S. inflation drives—cooler prints could fuel rallies, hotter ones cap upside.

## Outlook for the Week

Post-election clarity and Fed easing anchor bullishness, positioning S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for 8-12% year-end upside if CPI aligns with 8% EPS forecasts. Dow targets 7-9% on cyclicals, while Russell 2000, at a 26% discount, eyes 2,600+ on rotations. Bullish above supports with tame inflation; bearish on hot data or trade flares testing lows. Options lean hedged—expect volatility around CPI.