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S&P 500 Weekly Market Insights - Week of April 6th

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • Apr 5
  • 4 min read

Market Analysis for S&P 500 for the Week of April 6th, 2025


Overview:

As of April 5th, 2025, at 7:00 PM PDT, the S&P 500 is entering the week of April 6th following a volatile March and a significant downturn in early April. Real-time data shows the SPY ETF at 505.28 USD, down sharply from its previous close of 536.70 USD on April 4th, reflecting a 5.84% intraday decline. This analysis incorporates this latest price action, alongside late-cycle earnings, economic data releases (e.g., inflation or manufacturing updates), and policy developments under the Trump administration, as the market anticipates potential catalysts that could drive either a recovery or further correction.


Technical Analysis:

  • S&P Futures (ES_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 5,150 (immediate resistance, aligning with SPY’s recent intraday highs around 520-526 USD adjusted for futures)

      • 5,250 (strong resistance, corresponds to SPY’s prior consolidation near 536-540 USD)

      • 5,350 (major resistance, a critical level to reclaim for bullish momentum, near SPY’s late-March highs around 560-570 USD)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 5,050 (key near-term support, reflecting SPY’s current price of 505.28 USD and intraday low of 504.52 USD)

      • 4,950 (potential support, slightly below SPY’s year-low of 493.86 USD)

      • 4,850 (deeper correction level if breached, a psychological and technical floor)

      • 4,750 (significant downside target if selling accelerates)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 5,100, based on SPY’s high (525.87 USD), low (504.52 USD), and close (505.28 USD) from April 4th, adjusted for futures.


  • Entering the week of April 6th, ES_F likely starts near 5,050-5,075, reflecting SPY’s current price of 505.28 USD and the 5.84% drop from its April 4th close of 536.70 USD. The RSI is likely deeply oversold after this decline, suggesting a potential bounce if buying volume emerges. However, a break below 5,050 could push prices toward 4,950-4,750, levels aligned with SPY’s year-low and sentiment on X noting a significant sell-off.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The S&P 500 appears to be in an extended corrective wave from a late-February peak near 6,240. A move above 5,150 could signal a relief rally targeting 5,250-5,350, potentially halting the correction. Conversely, a drop below 5,050 might extend the corrective phase, with 4,750 as a downside target, reflecting heightened risk-off sentiment.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Earnings Season: 

    • Most S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with late-cycle updates or guidance influencing sentiment. The recent SPY drop from 576.00 USD on March 25th to 505.28 USD on April 4th reflects broader concerns about earnings sustainability amid high valuations, with any positive surprises this week potentially supporting a rebound.

  • Policy and Economic Indicators: 

    • Policy developments, particularly around Trump’s tariff policies, continue to drive volatility. The April 4th decline aligns with tariff-related uncertainty, and upcoming economic data (e.g., inflation or manufacturing) could either ease or exacerbate these pressures. Positive policy clarity might counter the bearish momentum, while persistent uncertainty could deepen the correction.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Posts on X from late March/early April highlight a cautious market, with the SPY’s fall from 573.8282 USD on March 24th to 505.28 USD intensifying bearish sentiment. Some traders see 480-493 USD (ES_F ~4,850-4,950) as a dip-buying zone, while others warn of further downside if support fails, reflecting a split outlook.


Options Chain Data for SPY ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 510 and 515, reflecting expectations of a recovery toward ES_F 5,150-5,250 (SPY ~510-515 USD) if bullish momentum emerges. These strikes, though out of the money given the current 505.28 USD price, could see interest if a rebound occurs from oversold conditions.

    • Lower strikes (e.g., 506-508) are active based on sentiment on X as potential bounce points, aligning with traders positioning for a near-term recovery from 505.28 USD.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 500 and 495, aligning with ES_F support around 5,050-4,950 (SPY ~500-495 USD). These levels likely saw heightened activity as hedges or bearish bets after the April 4th drop, with X posts reinforcing 493.86 USD (SPY’s year-low) as a critical hold zone.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for SPY options is likely sharply elevated after the 5.84% drop on April 4th, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Sentiment on X suggests a mix of panic and cautious optimism, with some traders anticipating a rebound from oversold conditions, though volatility underscores broader market unease.


Conclusion:

For the week of April 6th, 2025, the S&P 500 faces a critical moment with ES_F starting near 5,050, reflecting SPY’s current price of 505.28 USD. A break above 5,150 could trigger a relief rally toward 5,250-5,350, supported by call option interest at 510-515 for SPY, potentially driven by positive policy news or economic data. However, if support at 5,050 fails, a deeper correction toward 4,950-4,750 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 500-495 and X sentiment marking SPY’s year-low of 493.86 USD as a key threshold. The options market and posts on X reflect a volatile landscape post the April 4th drop, with traders split between recovery hopes and downside fears. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside earnings, policy updates, and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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