Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of September 7th

# Weekly Market Analysis: Nasdaq 100 Outlook for the Week of September 7, 2025

Welcome back to the Hobbs Trades weekly newsletter! As your go-to market analyst here at [www.hobbstrades.com](http://www.hobbstrades.com), I'm diving into the Nasdaq 100 index as we head into the trading week starting September 8, 2025. Following a volatile session post-jobs data, expect focus on inflation metrics that could sway tech-heavy sentiment amid rate cut expectations and AI-driven growth. The Nasdaq 100 closed the prior week with modest gains, reflecting resilience despite broader market choppiness. Let's break it down.

## Recent Performance Recap

The Nasdaq 100 index wrapped up the week ending September 5 on a positive note, closing at 23,652.44, up 19.43 points or 0.08% from the previous day. This capped a weekly performance of approximately 0.93% gain, amid mixed labor signals and sector rebounds in semiconductors. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq 100 has advanced 12.57%, outperforming broader indices driven by mega-cap tech strength.

Monthly trends show August delivering solid returns, with the index benefiting from rotations into growth amid easing hopes, though September's historical seasonality could add volatility. Valuations remain elevated, with a forward P/E ratio around 26.72-31.65, reflecting premiums for AI and innovation but raising concerns over sustainability if growth moderates. Recent X discussions highlight optimistic vibes around FANG+ expansions and individual plays like APP, with some noting dips as buying opportunities amid broader market noise.

## Key Price Levels for Nasdaq Futures (NQ)

NQ futures are consolidating post-jobs data, closing at 23,785.00 for the September contract. Watch these technical levels for potential moves:

- **Support Levels**:

- Immediate: 23,505 (recent low).

- Next: 23,461-23,506 (pivot and balance point).

- Deeper: 23,000 (psychological retracement on hotter inflation).

- **Resistance Levels**:

- Immediate: 23,856 (key overhead).

- Next: 23,902 (recent high).

- Major: 24,000-24,100 (breakout zone).

A rebound above 23,856 could fuel upside toward new highs on benign CPI, while a break below 23,505 might accelerate selling.

## QQQ ETF Options Chain Insights

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), a primary vehicle for Nasdaq 100 exposure, shows cautious but active options flow for the nearest weekly expiration (September 8, 2025). QQQ closed at approximately 576.06 (noting potential data alignment with index levels around 591; using provided chain).

- **High Open Interest Calls** (Bullish Focus):

- Strike 575: 1,841 OI, volume 47,806, last price $2.22, IV 9.86%.

- Strike 576: 976 OI, volume 41,534, last price $1.62, IV 9.40%.

- Strike 577: 777 OI, volume 25,082, last price $1.12, IV 9.13%.

- Strike 574: 1,372 OI, volume 30,040, last price $2.90, IV 10.24%.

- Strike 573: 621 OI, volume 14,511, last price $3.74, IV 12.48%.

- **High Open Interest Puts** (Defensive Focus):

- Strike 575: 6,086 OI, volume 37,154, last price $1.51, IV 11.87%.

- Strike 577: 607 OI, volume 10,799, last price $2.40, IV 11.41%.

- Strike 574: 1,333 OI, volume 29,196, last price $1.22, IV 12.18%.

- Strike 573: 862 OI, volume 19,455, last price $0.96, IV 12.70%.

- Strike 572: 1,434 OI, volume 23,995, last price $0.77, IV 13.21%.

Implied volatility (IV) ranges 9-13% for at-the-money strikes, with put skew indicating downside hedging amid data risks. Volume spikes in near-ATM options suggest positioning for mild moves, but watch for shifts post-expiry.

## Economic Events to Watch This Week

This week's spotlight is on inflation, which could heighten Nasdaq volatility given tech's rate sensitivity. Key highlights:

- **Monday, September 8**: No major releases.

- **Tuesday, September 9**: NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00 ET).

- **Wednesday, September 10**: CPI (8:30 ET), expected 2.9% YoY; Core CPI 0.3% MoM.

- **Thursday, September 11**: PPI (8:30 ET), Jobless Claims (8:30 ET).

- **Friday, September 12**: Consumer Sentiment (10:00 ET).

U.S. data dominates, with CPI as the pivot—cooler prints could boost rate cut odds and tech rallies.

## Outlook for the Week

Short-term risks from inflation data persist, but the Nasdaq 100's growth leadership and YTD strength position it for potential 10-15% further gains into year-end if Fed easing supports earnings and AI momentum. Bullish above 23,505 with breaks toward 23,902; bearish below on sticky CPI. Options reflect hedged bets for contained volatility, but surprises could amplify swings.

*Data as of September 6, 2025. Not financial advice—always do your own research.*