Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of August 31st

# Weekly Market Analysis: Nasdaq 100 Outlook for the Week of August 31, 2025

Welcome back to the Hobbs Trades weekly newsletter! As your go-to market analyst here at [www.hobbstrades.com](http://www.hobbstrades.com), I'm diving into the Nasdaq 100 index as we head into the short trading week starting September 1, 2025. With Labor Day closing markets on Monday, expect a compressed four-day session packed with key economic data that could sway tech-heavy sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 closed the prior week on a notable dip, but broader trends suggest potential for stabilization or rebound amid AI enthusiasm and rate cut hopes. Let's break it down.

## Recent Performance Recap

The Nasdaq 100 index wrapped up August on a downbeat note, closing at 23,415.42 on August 29, 2025, down 288.03 points or -1.22% from the previous day. This marked a weekly pullback of approximately -0.5%, amid broader market consolidation following Dell's soft AI guidance and sector rotations. However, small caps have shown resilience year-to-date, with the index up over 20% driven by mega-cap tech strength, though August delivered mixed returns with a net gain of about 2-3%.

Looking at monthly trends, the Nasdaq 100 faced volatility earlier in the summer but rebounded strongly in July. Valuations remain elevated, with a forward P/E ratio around 27-28, reflecting growth premiums in AI and semiconductors, though this positions the index at a premium to broader markets and raises overvaluation concerns if growth slows. Recent discussions on X highlight cautious optimism, with traders noting pullbacks as buying opportunities toward 24,000+ targets amid Fed easing expectations.

## Key Price Levels for Nasdaq Futures (NQ)

NQ futures, which track the index, are consolidating after the recent dip, with current levels near 23,461.75. Keep an eye on these technical levels for potential moves:

- **Support Levels**:

- Immediate: 23,318 (recent swing low).

- Next: 23,329-23,370 (major support confluence).

- Deeper: 23,067-23,150 (prior demand zone if data weakens).

- **Resistance Levels**:

- Immediate: 23,683 (short-term overhead).

- Next: 23,856 (key resistance).

- Major: 24,000-24,100 (breakout zone toward higher targets).

A rebound above 23,683 could ignite upside momentum, especially on positive economic surprises, while a break below 23,318 might accelerate selling toward deeper supports.

## QQQ ETF Options Chain Insights

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), a go-to ETF for Nasdaq 100 exposure, exhibits balanced options activity with a tilt toward caution as we approach the week. Focusing on the nearest weekly expiration (September 5, 2025):

- **High Open Interest Calls** (Bullish Focus):

- Strike 573: Volume noted, last price variable, IV ~16-17%.

- Strike 550: OI 1,124, volume 111, last price 20.19, IV 36.17%.

- Strike 580: High activity implied from chain data.

- **High Open Interest Puts** (Defensive Focus):

- Strike 550: Notable put activity for September, with surges in OI.

- Strike 560: Defensive positioning evident.

- Strike 570: Volume and OI spikes indicating hedging.

Implied volatility (IV) stands at around 16.62% overall, with at-the-money strikes in the 16-17% range, suggesting moderated expectations for volatility short-term. Volume is elevated at 4.4M contracts, 106% of average, with put skew hinting at downside protection amid earnings and data risks. QQQ closed near levels corresponding to the index at ~570-580 implied. Watch for shifts post-weekly expiry into monthly chains.

## Economic Events to Watch This Week

This week's calendar is labor-heavy, which could heighten Nasdaq volatility given tech's sensitivity to interest rates and economic growth. Markets closed Monday for Labor Day—ironic timing! Key highlights:

- **Tuesday, September 2**: S&P PMI Final (9:45 ET), ISM Manufacturing (10:00 ET). Expect focus on manufacturing rebound signals.

- **Wednesday, September 3**: Job Openings (July, 10:00 ET), Factory Orders.

- **Thursday, September 4**: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, ISM Services.

- **Friday, September 5**: Nonfarm Payrolls (August), Unemployment Rate. This is the big one—consensus expects softening, but a surprise could swing sentiment.

Global cues from China and Europe may also filter in, but U.S. data will dominate.

## Outlook for the Week

Short-term uncertainty lingers with elevated valuations and AI hype cooling, but the Nasdaq 100's growth leadership positions it for potential 10-15% gains into year-end if Fed cuts boost sentiment and earnings deliver. Bullish if holding above 23,329 and breaking 23,856; bearish below on weak jobs data. Options point to hedged positioning for contained moves, but surprises could amplify volatility.

*Data as of August 30, 2025. Not financial advice—always do your own research.*