Hobbs Catalyst Watch - Week of September 7th

Market Catalysts for the Week of September 7, 2025

• Monday, September 8:

  • No major U.S. economic releases scheduled; markets open post-Labor Day.

  • 12:30 PM: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks – Watch for hawkish or dovish signals on rates.

  • Earnings: Minimal activity; ~5-10 smaller companies reporting before market open (BMO) or after market close (AMC), per Yahoo Finance calendars. No major market movers expected.

  
  

• Tuesday, September 9:

  • 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (August) – Consensus: 91.5. A gauge of small business sentiment; weakness could signal economic slowdown concerns.

  • 10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories (July, final) – Consensus: 0.2%. Minor impact unless significantly off forecast.

  • Earnings: Oracle (ORCL) after market close – A key tech name; guidance could influence software and cloud sectors. ~10-15 additional earnings reports (BMO/AMC).

  
  

• Wednesday, September 10:

  • 7:00 AM: MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending Sep. 5) – No consensus; reflects housing demand sensitivity to rates.

  • 8:30 AM: Producer Price Index (PPI) (August) – Consensus: 0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY. Core PPI also key for inflation trends. A hotter-than-expected print could dampen rate cut hopes.

  • 9:15 AM: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks – Newer voice; could hint at FOMC leanings.

  • 10:00 AM: Wholesale Trade Sales (August) – No consensus; secondary indicator.

  • Earnings: ~15-20 reports (BMO/AMC); no major headliners noted.

  
  

• Thursday, September 11:

  • 8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (August) – Consensus: 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY. Core CPI critical for Fed’s inflation view; a high read could spark sell-offs in equities and bonds.

  • 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Sep. 6) – Consensus: 230K. Continued low claims support labor market resilience.

  • 8:30 AM: Continuing Claims (week ending Aug. 30) – No consensus; tracks longer-term unemployment trends.

  • 2:00 PM: U.S. Federal Budget (August) – No consensus; deficit concerns may resurface if numbers balloon.

  • Earnings: ~10-15 reports (BMO/AMC); winding down, with smaller firms dominating.

  
  

• Friday, September 12:

  • 10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September, preliminary) – Consensus: 68.5. A drop could reflect tariff and inflation worries; includes 1-year and 5-10 year inflation expectations.

  • Earnings: ~5-10 reports (BMO); negligible market impact expected.

  
  

• Saturday, September 13:

  • No major scheduled events; markets closed. Watch for weekend geopolitical or trade policy developments (e.g., tariff updates) that could set Monday’s tone.

Outlook: The CPI and PPI reports are the week’s heavyweights, as they’ll fine-tune expectations for the Fed’s September 17-18 meeting. Markets are pricing a 70% chance of a rate cut, but sticky inflation could shift sentiment. Oracle’s earnings may sway tech, especially if AI or cloud guidance surprises. Bonds and equities could see choppiness mid-week, so stay nimble.