Hobbs Catalyst Watch - Week of August 31st

### Market Catalysts for the Week of August 31, 2025

As a market analyst at Hobbs Trades, I'm kicking off this week's newsletter with a concise overview of scheduled events that could sway the stock market. With Labor Day kicking things off on a quiet note (U.S. markets closed), the focus shifts to manufacturing data, labor indicators, and a heavy dose of Fed commentary mid-week. The big finale comes Friday with the August jobs report, which could influence expectations for the Fed's September rate decision. Earnings season is winding down, but a few heavy hitters like Broadcom and Lululemon could still make waves. All times in EST; I've prioritized high-impact items based on potential volatility drivers.

- **Monday, September 1 (Labor Day Holiday)**: U.S. markets closed. No major economic releases or earnings expected. Globally, watch for any spillover from China's NBS Manufacturing PMI (released late August 31, around 9:30 PM EST), which could signal industrial trends affecting U.S. supply chains.

- **Tuesday, September 2**:

- 5:00 AM: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash (August) – Consensus: 2.1%. A lower print could pressure ECB policy and indirectly boost U.S. dollar strength.

- 9:45 AM: S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (August) – Consensus: 53.3.

- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing PMI (August) – Consensus: 48.5%. A rebound above 50 could support cyclical stocks; continued contraction might fuel recession fears.

- 10:00 AM: Construction Spending (July) – Consensus: 0.0%.

- Earnings: Limited reports; a few smaller names before market open (BMO) or after close (AMC), but nothing market-moving highlighted.

- **Wednesday, September 3**:

- 9:00 AM: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks on economic outlook – Could provide clues on rate path.

- 10:00 AM: JOLTS Job Openings (July) – Consensus: 7.4M. Key for gauging labor market tightness ahead of Friday's NFP.

- 10:00 AM: Factory Orders (July) – Consensus: -1.3%.

- 1:30 PM: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks – Often hawkish; watch for comments on inflation.

- 2:00 PM: Fed Beige Book release – Anecdotal insights into regional economies, potentially highlighting softening trends.

- TBA: Auto Sales (August) – No consensus, but a dip could signal consumer weakness.

- Earnings: Several reports, including potential mid-caps; around 7 BMO and 13 AMC, but no major standouts noted.

- **Thursday, September 4**:

- 8:15 AM: ADP Private Employment (August) – Consensus: 75K. A preview of Friday's official jobs data.

- 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug. 30) – Consensus: 231K.

- 8:30 AM: U.S. Productivity Revision (Q2) – Consensus: 2.6%.

- 8:30 AM: U.S. Trade Deficit (July) – Consensus: -$77.8B.

- 9:45 AM: S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (August) – Consensus: 55.3.

- 10:00 AM: ISM Services PMI (August) – Consensus: 50.5%. Services sector health is crucial for overall GDP.

- 10:00 AM: Senate Banking Committee nomination hearing for Stephen Miran as Fed Governor.

- 12:05 PM: New York Fed President John Williams speaks – Key dove; rate cut signals possible.

- 12:30 PM: Canada Balance of Trade (July) – Consensus: C$-6.1B; could affect CAD pairs and cross-border stocks.

- 7:00 PM: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks – Recent comments have leaned toward easing.

- Earnings: Heavy day with ~60 BMO and ~86 AMC. Notable: Broadcom (AVGO) and Lululemon (LULU) after close – Tech and consumer discretionary plays that could move Nasdaq and retail sectors.

- **Friday, September 5**:

- 6:00 AM: UK Retail Sales MoM (July) – Consensus: 0.3%; weak consumer data could weigh on global sentiment.

- 8:30 AM: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (August) – Consensus: 75K. The week's headliner; a miss could accelerate rate cut bets.

- 8:30 AM: U.S. Unemployment Rate (August) – Consensus: 4.3%.

- 8:30 AM: U.S. Hourly Wages MoM (August) – Consensus: 0.3%; YoY: 3.7%. Wage growth is a sticky inflation watchpoint.

- 12:30 PM: Canada Unemployment Rate (August) – Consensus: 7.0%.

- 2:00 PM: Canada Ivey PMI (August) – Consensus: 52.

- Earnings: ~46 BMO and 1 AMC; wrapping up the week with potential stragglers, but focus shifts to jobs reaction.

- **Saturday, September 6**: No major scheduled events; markets closed. Any weekend geopolitical developments (e.g., ongoing trade talks or energy disruptions) could set the tone for next week.

Overall, this week leans labor-heavy, with the jobs data potentially dictating whether the Fed starts cutting rates aggressively in mid-September. Tech and growth stocks may react sharply to earnings and ISM reads, while bonds could see movement on Fed speak. Stay tuned to www.hobbstrades.com for deeper dives – trade smart!