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S&P 500 Weekly Market Insights - Week of June 1st

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • May 31
  • 5 min read

Market Analysis for S&P 500 for the Week of June 1st, 2025


Overview:

As of May 31st, 2025, at 10:40 AM PDT, the S&P 500 enters the week of June 1st with a cautiously optimistic outlook, supported by the finance card above showing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trading at 589.39 USD, down 0.11% from its May 30th close of 590.05 USD. This follows a volatile April and a strong recovery in May, with the index up significantly from a mid-April low of 481.80 USD. The rally is driven by positive U.S.-China trade talk developments, robust corporate earnings, and easing tariff concerns, as noted in Investing.com’s May 29th report. However, risks from tariff uncertainty, a Moody’s U.S. credit rating downgrade to Aa1, and upcoming economic data (e.g., CPI, retail sales, consumer confidence) persist, per CNBC. Posts on X reflect a market testing key levels, with traders eyeing a breakout or pullback based on technical signals and macroeconomic catalysts.


Technical Analysis:

  • S&P Futures (ES_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 5,950 (immediate resistance, aligning with SPY’s recent highs around 590-592 USD, near the May 30th high of 591.1299 USD, and a target of 5,763 noted on X)

      • 6,000 (strong resistance, corresponds to SPY’s late March highs near 595-600 USD, as per Yahoo Finance)

      • 6,100 (major resistance, a key level for bullish momentum, near SPY’s year-high of 613.23 USD in February, per the finance card above)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 5,850 (key near-term support, reflecting SPY’s current price of 589.39 USD and May 30th low of 583.235 USD, with X posts noting support at 5,835)

      • 5,750 (potential support, aligning with SPY’s late April levels around 575-576 USD, as seen on May 23rd at 579.11 USD)

      • 5,650 (deeper correction level, near SPY’s mid-April low of 534.29 USD on April 11th)

      • 5,550 (significant downside target, near SPY’s early April low of 505.5 USD on April 4th)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 5,900, based on SPY’s May 30th metrics (open 588.93 USD, high 591.1299 USD, low 583.235 USD, close 590.05 USD), adjusted for futures, aligning with CME Group’s E-mini S&P 500 data.


  • Entering the week of June 1st, ES_F likely starts near 5,850-5,900, reflecting SPY’s current price of 589.39 USD and a neutral-to-bullish bias after a 0.11% drop on May 30th, with futures trading flat pre-market, per CNN. Posts on X indicate a recovering RSI (~50-55), with traders noting ES_F testing 5,617.25 and targeting 5,682-5,763 if bulls hold above 5,601, though a bearish target of 5,479 exists below 5,601, per a bearish WXY model. A bearish rising wedge breakdown and fading momentum could pressure prices if supports fail.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The S&P 500 is likely in a recovery phase following a corrective wave from a February peak near 6,240. A break above 5,950 could confirm a rally targeting 6,000-6,100, supported by trade optimism and earnings strength, aligning with Long Forecast’s June 2025 prediction of 6,286. Conversely, a drop below 5,850 might extend the corrective phase, with 5,550 as a downside target, reflecting tariff-driven risk-off sentiment or weak economic data, per LiteFinance’s bearish divergence signals.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Earnings Season: 

    • Q1 earnings from S&P 500 companies have been strong, with Microsoft (+9% on Q3 sales beat), Meta (+6% on Q1 sales beat), and Alphabet (+5% on Q1 earnings beat) driving gains, per Barchart. However, consumer staples like McDonald’s reported a 3.6% U.S. sales drop, signaling consumer pullback, per CNBC. Posts on X note UnitedHealth’s 8% surge on May 13th, reflecting resilience, but tariff concerns for retail and industrials persist, per J.P. Morgan. Upcoming earnings could sustain the rally if positive, but cost pressures from potential tariffs remain a concern, per Reuters.

  • Policy and Economic Indicators: 

    • Tariff uncertainty has been a key driver, with a 90-day tariff pause in mid-April and a tariff reduction to 30% on May 11th sparking rallies, per Investing.com. A federal court’s block on broad-based tariffs on May 29th and U.S.-China trade talks have driven $6.1 billion in U.S. equity inflows, per Bank of America, boosting sentiment. Strong April jobs data (177,000 nonfarm payrolls) has shifted Fed rate cut expectations to July, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool, supporting equities. However, Moody’s U.S. credit rating downgrade to Aa1 and Powell’s warning of tariff-driven inflation risks signal caution, per CNBC. This week’s CPI and consumer confidence data are critical, with weak results potentially triggering selling, as warned by Goldman Sachs’ 3.5% core inflation forecast, while J.P. Morgan’s 100 basis points of Fed easing by Q3 2025 could support markets if inflation cools.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Sentiment on X is cautiously bullish, with traders noting the S&P 500’s RSI at 23.51 in late April as oversold, supporting a reflexive rally. Posts highlight ES_F’s potential breakout above 5,682 targeting 5,763, but a drop below 5,601 could hit 5,479, per a bearish WXY model, with a recent retest of 5,837-5,794 noted. The VIX (~25.11, down from 48.05 in April) suggests stabilizing volatility, but persistent uncertainty remains, with traders split between upside targets of 5,685-5,750 and downside risks to 5,479, per Reuters’ report of the S&P 500 being 10% below its February high.


Options Chain Data for SPY ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 590 and 595, reflecting expectations of a rally toward ES_F 5,950-6,000 (SPY ~590-595 USD) if bullish momentum persists. These strikes are at the money given SPY’s current 589.39 USD price and align with X sentiment targeting 590-595 USD if SPY holds above 585 USD, supported by posts noting bullish volume spikes above 578 USD. Active call buying at 589-591 suggests near-term upside to 595 USD if 589.39 USD holds, per Nasdaq options data.

    • Max pain for SPY options expiring June 6th is estimated at 585 USD (ES_F ~5,850), suggesting a slight buffer below the current price, per X sentiment.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 585 and 580, aligning with ES_F support around 5,850-5,750 (SPY ~585-580 USD). These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the May consolidation, with X posts noting 543.69 USD (April 25th low) as a critical hold zone and 481.80 USD (year-low) as a deeper target. Put activity at 575 USD reflects concerns about a retest of mid-April lows (e.g., 534.29 USD on April 11th) if trade talks falter or economic data weakens, per Yahoo Finance options data.

    • Easing put/call ratios on X suggest a softening bearish bias, with traders anticipating a bullish continuation if supports hold.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for SPY options remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the April sell-off, with the VIX at ~25.11 indicating stabilizing but cautious sentiment, per CNN. Posts on X note a cautiously bullish shift, with traders anticipating a reversal if supports hold, supported by a declining VIX from its April peak of 48.05. The RVX’s premium over the VIX suggests small-cap volatility spillovers affecting broader indices, per Cboe data.


Conclusion:

For the week of June 1st, 2025, the S&P 500 is at a critical juncture with ES_F starting near 5,850-5,900, reflecting SPY’s current price of 589.39 USD, as shown in the finance card above. A break above 5,950 could drive a rally toward 6,000-6,100, supported by call option interest at 590-595 for SPY, potentially fueled by positive U.S.-China trade talk progress, strong earnings, or favorable economic data. However, if support at 5,850 fails, a correction toward 5,650-5,550 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 585-580 and X sentiment marking 543.69 USD as a key threshold, with 481.80 USD as a deeper target. The options market and posts on X reflect a cautiously bullish landscape, with traders balancing recovery expectations against downside risks amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside policy updates and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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