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Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of May 4th

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • May 3
  • 4 min read

Updated: May 10

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of May 4th, 2025


Overview:


the Nasdaq 100 is entering the week of May 4th following a volatile April, with the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) trading at 488.83 USD as of May 2nd, per real-time data, up significantly from a low of 441.33 USD on April 11th. This recovery reflects a 1.5% gain on May 2nd, driven by positive U.S.-China trade talk developments and robust tech earnings, though tariff uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns persist. Posts on X highlight a cautiously bullish sentiment, with traders eyeing further upside if trade negotiations progress, tempered by risks from upcoming economic data (e.g., employment, PMI) and policy developments under the Trump administration.


Technical Analysis:

  • Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 19,800 (immediate resistance, aligning with QQQ’s recent highs around 490-492 USD adjusted for futures, near the May 2nd high of 490.91 USD)

      • 20,000 (strong resistance, corresponds to QQQ’s prior consolidation near 500-503 USD, as noted in Investopedia’s April 10th analysis)

      • 20,200 (major resistance, a critical level to reclaim for bullish momentum, near QQQ’s late-March highs around 510-515 USD)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 19,600 (key near-term support, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 488.83 USD and May 2nd low of 484.83 USD)

      • 19,400 (potential support, aligning with QQQ’s late April levels around 472-475 USD, as seen on April 25th at 472.56 USD)

      • 19,200 (deeper correction level if breached, near QQQ’s mid-April low of 454.12 USD on April 11th)

      • 19,000 (significant downside target if selling resumes, near QQQ’s early April low of 410.18 USD)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 19,700, based on QQQ’s May 2nd metrics (high 490.91 USD, low 484.83 USD, close 488.83 USD), adjusted for futures.


    Entering the week of May 4th, NQ_F likely starts near 19,600-19,700, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 488.83 USD, up from 479.0 USD on May 1st, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Posts on X suggest a recovering RSI (~50-55), with traders noting NQ_F at 19,554.75 on April 25th and targeting 19,797.25-20,200 if bulls hold above 19,500. However, a break below 19,600 could trigger a pullback toward 19,200-19,000, aligning with bearish sentiment if tariff fears resurface, as warned by traders citing a potential retest of 19,428.50.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The Nasdaq 100 is likely transitioning from a corrective wave (from a February peak near 22,700) to a potential recovery phase. A move above 19,800 could confirm a relief rally targeting 20,000-20,200, supported by strong earnings and trade optimism. Conversely, a drop below 19,600 might resume the corrective phase, with 19,000 as a downside target, reflecting tariff-driven risk-off sentiment.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

    • Tech earnings have been a mixed driver, with strong results from Microsoft (+9% on Q3 sales beat) and Meta (+6% on Q1 sales beat) boosting the QQQ, as reported by Barchart on March 27th. However, tariff fears continue to impact top holdings like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, with posts on X noting concerns about manufacturing cost inflation. Recent positive earnings from Alphabet and Netflix, as well as AI-driven optimism, support bullish sentiment, but weaker guidance from other tech firms could cap gains.

  • Policy Influence: 

    • Tariff uncertainty has been a primary volatility driver, with a 90-day tariff pause in mid-April sparking a 12% QQQ rally, as noted by Investopedia on April 10th. Recent White House comments on U.S.-China trade talks, reported on May 2nd, have fueled optimism, with Investing.com citing positive developments driving futures higher. However, China’s retaliatory levies and ongoing trade tensions keep markets cautious. This week’s employment and PMI data are critical, with strong April jobs data (noted on May 2nd) supporting bullish sentiment, though weak PMI could reignite recession fears.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Sentiment on X is cautiously bullish, with QQQ’s range of 410.18-488.92 USD in April reflecting a recovery from tariff-driven lows. Traders note QQQ’s close at 488.83 USD on May 2nd as testing a key level, with some targeting 503 USD (NQ_F ~20,000) if bulls hold above 475 USD, while others warn of downside to 448 USD (NQ_F ~19,000) if supports break, per Investopedia’s April 10th levels. The VIX, recently at ~25.11, suggests stabilizing volatility but persistent uncertainty, with the VIX’s April peak of 48.05 indicating prior fear.


Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 490 and 495, reflecting expectations of a rally toward NQ_F 19,800-20,000 (QQQ ~490-495 USD) if bullish momentum persists. These strikes are at the money given QQQ’s current 488.83 USD price and align with X sentiment targeting 503 USD, supported by posts noting a bullish breakout above 475 USD.

    • Lower strikes (e.g., 488-490) are active as near-term bounce points, with traders positioning for a recovery, per X posts citing potential for a move to 483.55 USD by May 1st (adjusted for current levels).

    • Max pain for QQQ options expiring May 16th is estimated at 460 USD (NQ_F ~19,150), suggesting a potential anchor point below the current price, per X sentiment.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 485 and 480, aligning with NQ_F support around 19,400-19,200 (QQQ ~485-480 USD). These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the April correction, with X posts noting 441.33 USD (April 11th low) as a critical hold zone and 448 USD as a deeper target per Investopedia.

    • Posts on X highlight put activity at 475 USD, reflecting concerns about a potential retest of late April lows if trade talks falter.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for QQQ options remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the April sell-off, with the VIX at ~25.11 indicating stabilizing but cautious sentiment. Posts on X note high put/call ratios but a softening bearish bias, with traders anticipating a potential reversal if supports hold, supported by a declining VIX from its April peak of 48.05.


Conclusion:


For the week of May 4th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a pivotal juncture with NQ_F starting near 19,600-19,700, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 488.83 USD. A break above 19,800 could drive a relief rally toward 20,000-20,200, supported by call option interest at 490-495 for QQQ, potentially fueled by positive trade talk developments, strong tech earnings, or favorable economic data. However, if support at 19,600 fails, a correction toward 19,200-19,000 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 485-480 and X sentiment marking 441.33 USD as a key threshold. The options market and posts on X reflect a cautiously bullish landscape, with traders balancing recovery expectations against downside risks amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside policy updates and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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