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Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of May 25th

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • May 24
  • 5 min read

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of May 25th, 2025


Overview:

the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of May 25th with a cautiously optimistic outlook, following a volatile April and a significant recovery in May. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is trading at 509.24 USD, per real-time data, down from its May 23rd close of 514.0 USD but up from a mid-April low of 402.39 USD. This rally reflects positive U.S.-China trade talk developments, strong tech earnings, and easing tariff concerns, though risks remain from upcoming economic data (e.g., CPI, consumer confidence) and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration. Posts on X indicate a market testing key resistance, with traders eyeing a breakout or pullback based on technical signals and macroeconomic catalysts.


Technical Analysis:

  • Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 20,100 (immediate resistance, aligning with QQQ’s recent highs around 514-516 USD, near the May 23rd high of 511.84 USD)

      • 20,300 (strong resistance, corresponds to QQQ’s late March highs near 520-525 USD, as noted in Investopedia’s April 10th analysis)

      • 20,500 (major resistance, a key level for bullish momentum, near QQQ’s year-high of 540.81 USD in February)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 19,900 (key near-term support, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 509.24 USD and May 23rd low of 505.58 USD)

      • 19,700 (potential support, aligning with QQQ’s late April levels around 487-488 USD, as seen on May 2nd at 488.83 USD)

      • 19,500 (deeper correction level, near QQQ’s mid-April low of 454.12 USD on April 11th)

      • 19,300 (significant downside target, near QQQ’s early April low of 443.19 USD on April 10th)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 20,000, based on QQQ’s May 23rd metrics (high 511.84 USD, low 505.58 USD, close 509.24 USD), adjusted for futures, aligning with CME Group’s E-mini Nasdaq-100 data.


  • Entering the week of May 25th, NQ_F likely starts near 19,900-20,000, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 509.24 USD, which is down 0.93% from the previous close, indicating a potential consolidation phase, per Barchart. Posts on X suggest an RSI (~50-55), with traders noting a bullish breakout above 19,797.25 targeting 20,100-20,300, but a bearish reversal below 19,500 could test 19,300-19,100, per a “Falling 3 Methods” setup. The market’s tight range (505.58-511.84 USD on May 23rd) suggests indecision ahead of key data releases.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The Nasdaq 100 is likely in a recovery phase following a corrective wave from a February peak near 22,700. A move above 20,100 could confirm a rally targeting 20,300-20,500, supported by trade optimism and earnings strength, potentially aligning with TradingView’s bullish short-term outlook. Conversely, a drop below 19,900 might extend the corrective phase, with 19,300 as a downside target, reflecting tariff-driven risk-off sentiment, as noted by CAPEX.com’s bearish Q3 2024 forecast.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

    • Tech earnings have been a key driver, with Microsoft (+9% on Q3 sales beat), Meta (+6% on Q1 sales beat), and Alphabet (+5% on Q1 earnings beat) boosting the QQQ, per Barchart. Netflix’s Q4 results (+14% on April 23rd) further supported sentiment, per Investing.com. However, tariff fears impact top holdings like Apple, with a 3% drop on May 22nd after Trump’s 25% tariff threat, per CNBC. Posts on X note AI-driven optimism, but weaker guidance from firms like Amazon and Intel has capped gains, per CAPEX.com. Upcoming earnings could sustain the rally if positive, but cost pressures from tariffs remain a concern.

  • Policy and Economic Indicators: 

    • Tariff uncertainty has driven volatility, with a 90-day tariff pause in mid-April and a tariff reduction to 30% on May 11th sparking a 12% QQQ rally, per Investopedia. Recent U.S.-China trade talks and a US-UK trade deal on May 8th have driven $6.1 billion in U.S. equity inflows, per Bank of America, boosting sentiment. Strong April jobs data (177,000 nonfarm payrolls) has shifted Fed rate cut expectations to July, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool, supporting equities. However, Moody’s U.S. credit rating downgrade to Aa1 and Powell’s warning of tariff-driven inflation risks signal caution, per CNBC. This week’s CPI and consumer confidence data are critical, with weak results potentially triggering selling, as warned by Goldman Sachs’ 3.5% core inflation forecast.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Sentiment on X is cautiously bullish, with traders noting QQQ’s recovery from 402.39 USD to 509.24 USD as resilient, though a tight daily range (505.58-511.84 USD on May 23rd) suggests indecision. Posts target 520 USD (NQ_F 20,300) if bulls hold above 500 USD, but warn of downside to 448 USD (NQ_F ~19,300) if supports break, per Investopedia’s support levels. The VIX (25.11, down from 48.05 in April) indicates stabilizing volatility, but the RVX’s premium suggests small-cap spillover risks affecting tech-heavy indices, per Cboe data.


Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 510 and 515, reflecting expectations of a rally toward NQ_F 20,100-20,300 (QQQ ~510-515 USD) if bullish momentum persists. These strikes are at the money given QQQ’s current 509.24 USD price and align with X sentiment targeting 520 USD, supported by posts noting bullish volume spikes above 500 USD. Active call buying at 509-511 suggests near-term upside to 515 USD if 509.24 USD holds, per Yahoo Finance options data.

    • Max pain for QQQ options expiring May 30th is estimated at 505 USD (NQ_F ~19,900), suggesting a slight buffer below the current price, per X sentiment.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 505 and 500, aligning with NQ_F support around 19,900-19,700 (QQQ ~505-500 USD). These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the April correction, with X posts noting 441.33 USD (April 11th low) as a critical hold zone and 448 USD as a deeper target per Investopedia. Put activity at 495 USD reflects concerns about a retest of mid-April lows if trade talks falter or economic data weakens, per Yahoo Finance options data.

    • Posts on X highlight easing put/call ratios, suggesting a softening bearish bias, with traders anticipating a bullish continuation if supports hold.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for QQQ options remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the April sell-off, with the VIX at ~25.11 indicating stabilizing but cautious sentiment, per CNN. Posts on X note a cautiously bullish shift, with traders anticipating a reversal if supports hold, supported by a declining VIX from its April peak of 48.05. The RVX’s premium over the VIX suggests small-cap volatility spillovers affecting tech-heavy indices, per Cboe data.


Conclusion:

For the week of May 25th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a critical juncture with NQ_F starting near 19,900-20,000, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 509.24 USD. A break above 20,100 could drive a rally toward 20,300-20,500, supported by call option interest at 510-515 for QQQ, potentially fueled by positive U.S.-China trade talk progress, strong tech earnings, or favorable economic data. However, if support at 19,900 fails, a correction toward 19,500-19,300 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 505-500 and X sentiment marking 441.33 USD as a key threshold, with 448 USD as a deeper target. The options market and posts on X reflect a cautiously bullish landscape, with traders balancing recovery expectations against downside risks amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside policy updates and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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