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Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of may 11th

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • 5 days ago
  • 5 min read

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of May 11th, 2025


Overview:

the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of May 11th with a cautiously bullish outlook following a volatile April and a strong recovery in early May. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is trading at 487.97 USD, per real-time data, slightly down from its May 9th close of 488.29 USD but up significantly from a low of 441.33 USD on April 11th. This recovery, driven by positive U.S.-China trade talk developments and robust tech earnings, has been tempered by tariff uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns. Posts on X and recent reports indicate a market poised for potential upside if trade negotiations progress, but with downside risks if supports fail or economic data disappoints.


Technical Analysis:

  • Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 19,900 (immediate resistance, aligning with QQQ’s recent highs around 490-492 USD, near the May 9th high of 491.54 USD)

      • 20,100 (strong resistance, corresponds to QQQ’s early April consolidation near 503-505 USD, as noted in Investopedia’s April 10th analysis)

      • 20,300 (major resistance, a key level for bullish momentum, near QQQ’s late-March highs around 515-520 USD)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 19,700 (key near-term support, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 487.97 USD and May 9th low of 486.195 USD)

      • 19,500 (potential support, aligning with QQQ’s late April levels around 472-475 USD, as seen on April 25th at 472.56 USD)

      • 19,300 (deeper correction level, near QQQ’s mid-April low of 454.12 USD on April 11th)

      • 19,100 (significant downside target, near QQQ’s early April low of 443.19 USD on April 10th)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 19,800, based on QQQ’s May 9th metrics (high 491.54 USD, low 486.195 USD, close 487.97 USD), adjusted for futures.


  • Entering the week of May 11th, NQ_F likely starts near 19,700-19,800, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 487.97 USD and a tight trading range, as noted on X with a range of 482.08-488.91 USD (NQ_F 19,804-20,208). The RSI (50-55) suggests room for upside, with traders targeting 19,900-20,100 if bulls hold above 19,500, though a bearish reversal below 19,428.50 could test 19,300-19,100, per X posts citing a potential bearish setup.

    Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The Nasdaq 100 is likely in a recovery phase following a corrective wave from a February peak near 22,700. A move above 19,900 could confirm a rally targeting 20,100-20,300, supported by trade optimism and earnings strength. Conversely, a drop below 19,700 might resume the corrective phase, with 19,100 as a downside target, reflecting tariff-driven risk-off sentiment, as noted by TradingView’s bearish long-term scenario.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

    • Tech earnings have been a key driver, with Microsoft (+9% on Q3 sales beat) and Meta (+6% on Q1 sales beat) boosting the QQQ, per Barchart on March 27th. Alphabet’s Q1 earnings beat and Netflix’s strong Q4 results (+14% on April 23rd) have further supported sentiment, per Investing.com. However, tariff fears impact top holdings like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, with posts on X noting concerns about manufacturing cost inflation. AI-driven optimism persists, but weaker guidance from other tech firms could cap gains, as warned by CAPEX.com’s August 2024 analysis.

  • Policy and Economic Indicators: 

    • Tariff uncertainty has driven volatility, with a 90-day tariff pause in mid-April sparking a 12% QQQ rally, per Investopedia on April 10th. Recent U.S.-China trade talks and a US-UK trade deal on May 8th have driven $6.1 billion in U.S. equity inflows last week, per Bank of America, boosting sentiment. Strong April jobs data (177,000 nonfarm payrolls) has shifted Fed rate cut expectations to July, per CNBC, supporting equities, but comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent on potential 80% tariffs and New York Fed President Williams on slower 2025 growth could trigger volatility, per Barchart. This week’s CPI and retail sales data are critical, with weak results potentially reigniting selling.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Sentiment on X is cautiously bullish, with traders noting QQQ’s recovery from 410.18 USD to 487.97 USD as resilient, though a tight range of 482.08-488.91 USD suggests indecision. Posts target 503 USD (NQ_F 20,100) if bulls hold above 475 USD, but warn of downside to 448 USD (NQ_F ~19,100) if supports break, aligning with Investopedia’s support levels. The VIX (25.11, down from 48.05 in April) indicates stabilizing volatility, but the RVX’s premium suggests small-cap spillover risks affecting tech-heavy indices.


Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 490 and 495, reflecting expectations of a rally toward NQ_F 20,100-20,300 (QQQ ~490-495 USD) if bullish momentum persists. These strikes are near the money given QQQ’s current 487.97 USD price and align with X sentiment targeting 503 USD, supported by posts noting a bullish breakout above 475 USD. Active call buying at 488-490 suggests near-term upside to 492 USD if 487.97 USD holds, per X posts.

    • Max pain for QQQ options expiring May 16th is estimated at 460 USD (NQ_F ~19,150), suggesting a potential anchor point below the current price, per X sentiment.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 485 and 480, aligning with NQ_F support around 19,700-19,500 (QQQ ~485-480 USD). These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the April correction, with X posts noting 441.33 USD (April 11th low) as a critical hold zone and 448 USD as a deeper target per Investopedia. Put activity at 475 USD reflects concerns about a retest of late April lows if trade talks falter or economic data weakens, per X sentiment.

    • Posts on X highlight a softening bearish bias, with put/call ratios easing, suggesting potential for a bullish continuation if supports hold.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for QQQ options remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the April sell-off, with the VIX at ~25.11 indicating stabilizing but cautious sentiment, per CNN. Posts on X note a cautiously bullish shift, with traders anticipating a reversal if supports hold, supported by a declining VIX from its April peak of 48.05. The RVX’s premium over the VIX suggests small-cap volatility spillovers affecting tech-heavy indices.


Conclusion:

For the week of May 11th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a critical juncture with NQ_F starting near 19,700-19,800, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 487.97 USD. A break above 19,900 could drive a rally toward 20,100-20,300, supported by call option interest at 490-495 for QQQ, potentially fueled by positive U.S.-China trade talk progress, strong tech earnings, or favorable economic data. However, if support at 19,700 fails, a correction toward 19,300-19,100 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 485-480 and X sentiment marking 441.33 USD as a key threshold, with 448 USD as a deeper target. The options market and posts on X reflect a cautiously bullish landscape, with traders balancing recovery expectations against downside risks amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside policy updates and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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