Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of March 3rd

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of March 3rd, 2025

Overview:

As of March 1st, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 has been a standout performer in early 2025, driven by relentless growth in technology sectors—particularly AI, semiconductors, and cloud computing. Entering the week of March 3rd, the index is testing significant resistance levels, suggesting a potential inflection point where it could either surge to new highs or face a correction, influenced by high valuations, late-cycle earnings updates, and policy developments under the Trump administration.

Technical Analysis:

• Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

  • Resistance Levels:

    • 22,700 (major resistance, a key level for a potential breakout)

    • 22,550

    • 22,400

  • Support Levels: 

    • 22,250 (key near-term support, where consolidation might hold)

    • 22,100

    • 21,950

    • 21,800 (could signal a deeper correction if breached)

  • Pivots: 

    • Daily Pivot around 22,475, acting as a midpoint for market swings this week.

  
  

  The NQ_F has maintained a bullish trajectory but is now encountering resistance near 22,700. Posts on X suggest a recent dip below key moving averages in late February, followed by a recovery attempt, with the index approaching overbought RSI levels. Volume trends will be critical—strong buying could push past resistance, while a drop-off might signal a correction.

  
  

• Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

  • The Nasdaq 100 could be in the late stages of a bullish wave, with a breakout above 22,700 potentially driving it toward 23,000. Conversely, failure at this resistance might initiate a corrective wave, testing supports as low as 21,800, especially if profit-taking or bearish sentiment intensifies.

Fundamental Outlook:

• Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

  • Earnings from tech giants have fueled the rally, but any signs of slowing growth or weaker guidance could prompt a valuation reassessment. AI and semiconductor advancements remain key drivers, with updates this week potentially impacting sentiment.

• Policy Influence: 

  • Policy announcements related to tech innovation, such as AI infrastructure or regulatory changes, could significantly sway the index. Investors are watching for any signals from the administration that might affect the tech sector.

• Market Sentiment: 

  • Posts on X reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook, with some traders targeting 23,000-23,500 if resistance breaks, while others highlight support around 21,800-22,000 as critical if a pullback occurs. Sentiment leans toward a potential “dip-buying” opportunity if levels hold.

Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

• Call Options: 

  • High open interest at strike prices of 560 and 565, indicating expectations of a rally if NQ_F breaks 22,700. This aligns with X sentiment targeting 23,000-23,500 for futures, translating to roughly 560-565 for QQQ.

  • Recent posts note a weekly high estimate of 532, suggesting these calls are positioned for a breakout scenario.

• Put Options: 

  • Significant open interest at 540 and 535, suggesting these levels are key support areas where investors might buy dips or hedge against declines. This corresponds to NQ_F support around 22,250-22,100, with X posts noting 518-526 as a neutral range.

• Volatility: 

  • Implied volatility for QQQ options has increased slightly, reflecting trader anticipation of potential swings. X posts suggest a mix of bullish fund flows and cautious positioning, with put/call ratios indicating preparedness for downside risks.

Conclusion:

For the week of March 3rd, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a pivotal resistance level of 22,700 for NQ_F. A break above this could propel the index toward 23,000 or higher, driven by strong tech performance or favorable policy news, aligning with bullish call option interest at 560-565 for QQQ. However, if resistance holds, a correction toward supports at 22,250 or lower could unfold, particularly if earnings disappoint or selling pressure mounts, as reflected in put option interest at 540-535. The options market for QQQ and sentiment on X indicate a market poised for volatility, with traders split between breakout optimism and correction preparedness. Investors should monitor these technical levels, alongside earnings, policy updates, and economic data, to navigate the week effectively.