Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of March 30th

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of March 30th, 2025

Overview:

As of March 29th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of March 30th following a turbulent March, characterized by a strong early 2025 driven by tech sector gains—particularly in AI and semiconductors—followed by a corrective phase. Policy expectations under the Trump administration, late-cycle earnings updates, and macroeconomic data releases (e.g., employment figures) will be pivotal, with the index at a potential inflection point after recent declines.

Technical Analysis:

• Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

  • Resistance Levels:

    • 21,650 (immediate resistance, a flipped support level from late March)

    • 21,800 (strong resistance, aligns with prior consolidation and a potential recovery target)

    • 21,950 (major resistance, a critical level for bullish momentum to regain traction)

  • Support Levels: 

    • 21,350 (key near-term support, where recent stabilization might hold)

    • 21,200

    • 21,050

    • 20,900 (potential deeper correction level if breached)

  • Pivots: 

    • Daily Pivot around 21,500, acting as a midpoint for market swings this week.

  
  

  Entering the week of March 30th, NQ_F likely starts near 21,350-21,500, reflecting a tentative stabilization after testing lows around 21,500-21,350 in late March, as suggested by recent market trends and sentiment on X. The RSI could be hovering near oversold levels, indicating a possible bounce if buying volume increases. However, a break below 21,350 might accelerate selling toward 20,900, a level noted as a significant support zone in current discussions.

  
  

• Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

  • The Nasdaq 100 appears to be in the final stages of a corrective wave following a late-February peak near 22,700. A move above 21,650 could initiate a relief rally targeting 21,800-21,950, potentially signaling the end of the correction. Conversely, a drop below 21,350 might extend the corrective phase, with 20,900 as a downside target, reflecting persistent risk-off sentiment.

Fundamental Outlook:

• Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

  • Tech earnings have fueled earlier gains, but late-cycle updates or weaker guidance could deepen correction risks. AI and semiconductor sectors remain key drivers, with any developments this week potentially acting as a catalyst.

• Policy Influence: 

  • Policy announcements related to tech innovation, such as AI infrastructure or regulatory changes, could sway the index. Investors are watching for signals that might bolster or hinder tech growth.

• Market Sentiment: 

  • Posts on X from late March suggest a cautious market, with some traders viewing the breakdown below 22,000 as bearish, while others see 21,200-21,350 as a potential dip-buying zone. Sentiment hints at a bottoming process, with traders watching for a

    reversal if support holds.

Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

• Call Options: 

  • High open interest at strike prices of 525 and 530, reflecting expectations of a recovery toward NQ_F 21,800-21,950 (QQQ ~525-530) if bullish momentum emerges. These strikes, though challenged by the March decline, could see renewed interest with a rebound.

  • Lower strikes (e.g., 518-526) remain active on X as potential bounce points, indicating traders are positioning for a recovery scenario.

• Put Options: 

  • Significant open interest at 520 and 515, aligning with NQ_F support around 21,350-21,200. These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the late-March correction, with X posts reinforcing 518-526 as a neutral range.

• Volatility: 

  • Implied volatility for QQQ options remains elevated, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Posts on X suggest a cautious bullish undertone among some traders anticipating a rebound, but heightened volatility underscores broader market nervousness.

Conclusion:

For the week of March 30th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 stands at a crossroads with NQ_F facing resistance at 21,650. A break above this could spark a relief rally toward 21,800-21,950, supported by call option interest at 525-530 for QQQ, potentially driven by positive tech developments or policy news. However, if support at 21,350 fails, a deeper correction toward 20,900 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 520-515 and X sentiment marking this as a key hold zone. The options market and posts on X reflect a volatile landscape, with traders balancing recovery hopes against downside risks. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside earnings, policy updates, and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.