Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of March 16th

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of March 16th, 2025

Overview:

As of March 15th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of March 16th amid a volatile early 2025, driven by strong tech sector performance—particularly in AI and semiconductors—but tempered by a corrective phase that began in early March. Policy expectations under the Trump administration, late-cycle earnings updates, and macroeconomic data releases will be pivotal, with the index testing critical levels after a recent pullback.

Technical Analysis:

• Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

  • Resistance Levels:

    • 21,950 (immediate resistance, a flipped support level from early March)

    • 22,100 (strong resistance, aligns with prior consolidation and breakdown zone)

    • 22,250 (major resistance, a key level for bullish momentum to reclaim)

  • Support Levels: 

    • 21,650 (key near-term support, where recent lows might stabilize)

    • 21,500

    • 21,350

    • 21,200 (potential deeper correction level if breached)

  • Pivots: 

    • Daily Pivot around 21,800, acting as a midpoint for market swings this week.

  
  

• Entering the week of March 16th, NQ_F likely starts near 21,650-21,800, reflecting a potential stabilization after a drop below 22,000-22,250 in early March, as noted in posts on X. The RSI might be recovering from oversold conditions, suggesting a possible bounce if buying volume increases. However, a failure to hold 21,650 could push prices toward 21,200, a level highlighted as critical support in recent sentiment.

  
  

• Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

  • The Nasdaq 100 appears to be in a corrective wave following a peak near 22,700 in late February. A move above 21,950 could signal a relief rally targeting 22,100-22,250, potentially marking the end of the correction. Conversely, a break below 21,650 might extend the corrective phase, with 21,200 as a downside target, reflecting broader market risk-off sentiment.

Fundamental Outlook:

• Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

  • Tech earnings have been a key driver, but late-cycle updates or weaker guidance could deepen correction risks. AI and semiconductor sectors remain focal points, with any developments this week potentially acting as a catalyst.

• Policy Influence: 

  • Policy announcements related to tech innovation, such as AI infrastructure or regulatory changes, could sway the index. Investors are watching for signals that might bolster or hinder tech growth.

• Market Sentiment: 

  • Posts on X from early-to-mid March indicate a cautious market, with some traders noting a breakdown below 22,000 as bearish, while others see 21,500-21,800 as a potential dip-buying zone. Sentiment is mixed, with focus on tech resilience versus broader market pressures.

Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

• Call Options: 

  • High open interest at strike prices of 535 and 540, reflecting expectations of a recovery toward NQ_F 22,100-22,250 (QQQ ~535-540) if bullish momentum returns. These strikes may have lost favor after the early March sell-off but could see renewed interest with a rebound.

  • Lower strikes (e.g., 518-526) remain in focus on X as potential bounce points, suggesting some traders are positioning for a recovery play.

• Put Options: 

  • Significant open interest at 530 and 525, aligning with NQ_F support around 21,650-21,500. These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the recent correction, with X posts noting 518-526 as a neutral range.

• Volatility: 

  • Implied volatility for QQQ options remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the early March breakdown. Posts on X suggest a cautious bullish undertone among some traders anticipating a rebound, but heightened volatility indicates broader market unease.

Conclusion:

For the week of March 16th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a pivotal point with NQ_F facing resistance at 21,950. A break above this could spark a relief rally toward 22,100-22,250, supported by call option interest at 535-540 for QQQ, potentially driven by positive tech developments or policy news. However, if support at 21,650 fails, a deeper correction toward 21,200 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 530-525 and X sentiment highlighting this as a key hold zone. The options market and posts on X reflect a market poised for volatility, with traders balancing recovery hopes against downside risks. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside earnings, policy updates, and economic data, to navigate the week effectively.