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Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of June 1st

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • May 31
  • 5 min read

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of June 1st, 2025


Overview:

the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of June 1st with a cautiously optimistic outlook, following a volatile April and a robust recovery in May. The finance card above shows the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) trading at 519.11 USD, down slightly from its May 30th close of 519.93 USD but up significantly from a mid-April low of 402.39 USD. This ~29% rally from April lows is driven by positive U.S.-China trade talk developments, strong tech earnings, and easing tariff concerns, as noted in Investing.com’s May 29th report. However, tariff uncertainty, a Moody’s U.S. credit rating downgrade to Aa1, and upcoming economic data (e.g., CPI, retail sales, consumer confidence) pose risks, per CNBC. Posts on X reflect a market testing key resistance, with traders eyeing a breakout or pullback based on technical signals and macroeconomic catalysts.


Technical Analysis:

  • Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 21,400 (immediate resistance, aligning with QQQ’s recent highs around 520-522 USD, near the May 30th high of 520.68 USD, and a pivot at 21,376.75 USD noted on X)

      • 21,600 (strong resistance, corresponds to QQQ’s late March highs near 525-530 USD, with X posts targeting 21,650)

      • 21,800 (major resistance, a key level for bullish momentum, near QQQ’s year-high of 540.81 USD in February, per the finance card above)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 21,100 (key near-term support, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 519.11 USD and May 30th low of 511.93 USD, with X posts noting support at 21,157)

      • 20,900 (potential support, aligning with QQQ’s late April levels around 487-488 USD, as seen on May 2nd at 488.83 USD)

      • 20,700 (deeper correction level, near QQQ’s mid-April low of 454.12 USD on April 11th)

      • 20,500 (significant downside target, near QQQ’s early April low of 443.19 USD on April 10th)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 21,300, based on QQQ’s May 30th metrics (open 519.44 USD, high 520.68 USD, low 511.93 USD, close 519.11 USD), adjusted for futures, aligning with CME Group’s E-mini Nasdaq-100 data.


  • Entering the week of June 1st, NQ_F likely starts near 21,200-21,300, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 519.11 USD and a neutral-to-bullish bias after a 0.16% drop on May 30th, with futures trading flat pre-market, per Barchart. Posts on X indicate a recovering RSI (~50-55), with traders noting a bullish continuation above 21,157 targeting 21,400-21,600, but a bearish setup below 19,428.50 could test 20,700-20,500, per a “Falling 3 Methods” pattern and bearish divergence signals.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The Nasdaq 100 is likely in a recovery phase following a corrective wave from a February peak near 22,700. A break above 21,400 could confirm a rally targeting 21,600-21,800, driven by trade optimism and earnings strength, aligning with TradingView’s bullish short-term outlook. Conversely, a drop below 21,100 might extend the corrective phase, with 20,500 as a downside target, reflecting tariff-driven risk-off sentiment or

      weak economic data, per Investopedia’s volatility concerns.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

    • Tech earnings have been a key driver, with Microsoft (+9% on Q3 sales beat), Meta (+6% on Q1 sales beat), and Alphabet (+5% on Q1 earnings beat) boosting the QQQ, per Barchart. Netflix’s Q4 results (+14% on April 23rd) further supported sentiment, per Investing.com. However, tariff fears impact top holdings like Apple (-3% on May 22nd after Trump’s 25% tariff threat), with posts on X noting manufacturing cost inflation concerns for Nvidia and Microsoft. AI-driven optimism persists, but weaker guidance from firms like Amazon could cap gains, per CAPEX.com.

  • Policy and Economic Indicators: 

    • Tariff uncertainty has driven volatility, with a 90-day tariff pause in mid-April and a tariff reduction to 30% on May 11th sparking rallies, per Investing.com. Recent U.S.-China trade talks, a US-UK trade deal on May 8th, and a federal court’s block on broad-based tariffs on May 29th have driven $6.1 billion in U.S. equity inflows, per Bank of America, boosting sentiment. Strong April jobs data (177,000 nonfarm payrolls) has shifted Fed rate cut expectations to July, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool, supporting equities, but Moody’s U.S. credit rating downgrade to Aa1 and Powell’s warning of tariff-driven inflation risks signal caution, per CNBC. This week’s CPI and consumer confidence data are critical, with weak results potentially triggering selling, per Goldman Sachs’ 3.5% core inflation forecast, while J.P. Morgan’s 100 basis points of Fed easing by Q3 2025 could support markets if inflation cools.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Sentiment on X is cautiously bullish, with traders noting QQQ’s recovery from 402.39 USD to 519.11 USD as resilient, though a tight daily range (511.93-520.68 USD on May 30th) suggests indecision, per the finance card above. Posts target 525 USD (NQ_F 21,600) if bulls hold above 500 USD, but warn of downside to 448 USD (NQ_F ~19,300) if supports break, aligning with Investopedia’s support levels at $448. The VIX (25.11, down from 48.05 in April) indicates stabilizing volatility, but the RVX’s premium suggests small-cap uncertainty affecting tech-heavy indices, per Cboe data.


Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 520 and 525, reflecting expectations of a rally toward NQ_F 21,400-21,600 (QQQ ~520-525 USD) if bullish momentum persists. These strikes are at the money given QQQ’s current 519.11 USD price and align with X sentiment targeting 525 USD, supported by posts noting bullish volume spikes above 500 USD. Active call buying at 519-521 suggests near-term upside to 525 USD if 519.11 USD holds, per Nasdaq options data.

    • Max pain for QQQ options expiring June 6th is estimated at 515 USD (NQ_F ~21,200), suggesting a slight buffer below the current price, per X sentiment.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 515 and 510, aligning with NQ_F support around 21,100-20,900 (QQQ ~515-510 USD). These levels likely saw increased activity as hedges or bearish bets during the May consolidation, with X posts noting 441.33 USD (April 11th low) as a critical hold zone and 448 USD as a deeper target per Investopedia. Put activity at 505 USD reflects concerns about a retest of mid-April lows (e.g., 454.12 USD on April 11th) if trade talks falter or economic data weakens, per Yahoo Finance options data.

    • Easing put/call ratios on X suggest a softening bearish bias, with traders anticipating a bullish continuation if supports hold.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for QQQ options remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the April sell-off, with the VIX at ~25.11 indicating stabilizing but cautious sentiment, per CNN. Posts on X note a cautiously bullish shift, with traders anticipating a reversal if supports hold, supported by a declining VIX from its April peak of 48.05. The RVX’s premium over the VIX suggests small-cap volatility spillovers affecting tech-heavy indices, per Cboe data.


Conclusion:

For the week of June 1st, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a critical juncture with NQ_F starting near 21,200-21,300, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 519.11 USD, as shown in the finance card above. A break above 21,400 could drive a rally toward 21,600-21,800, supported by call option interest at 520-525 for QQQ, potentially fueled by positive U.S.-China trade talk progress, strong tech earnings, or favorable economic data. However, if support at 21,100 fails, a correction toward 20,700-20,500 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 515-510 and X sentiment marking 441.33 USD as a key threshold, with 448 USD as a deeper target. The options market and posts on X reflect a cautiously bullish landscape, with traders balancing recovery expectations against downside risks amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside policy updates and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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