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Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of April 6th

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • Apr 5
  • 3 min read

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of April 6th, 2025


Overview:

As of April 5th, 2025, at 3:45 PM PDT, the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of April 6th amidst a volatile early 2025, following a robust start driven by tech sector strength—particularly in AI and semiconductors—before entering a significant corrective phase in March and early April. Real-time data shows the QQQ ETF at 422.67 USD, down sharply from its previous close of 450.66 USD on April 4th, reflecting a 6.2% intraday decline. This analysis incorporates this latest price action, alongside late-cycle earnings, economic data releases (e.g., inflation or manufacturing updates), and policy developments under the Trump administration, as the market anticipates potential catalysts.


Technical Analysis:

  • Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 18,900 (immediate resistance, aligning with QQQ’s recent intraday highs around 435-440 USD adjusted for futures)

      • 19,200 (strong resistance, corresponds to QQQ’s prior consolidation near 450-455 USD)

      • 19,500 (major resistance, a critical level to reclaim for bullish momentum, near QQQ’s late-March highs around 466-480 USD)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 18,600 (key near-term support, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 422.67 USD and intraday low of 422.67 USD)

      • 18,400 (potential support, slightly below QQQ’s year-low of 413.07 USD)

      • 18,200 (deeper correction level if breached, a psychological and technical floor)

      • 18,000 (significant downside target if selling accelerates)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 18,750, based on QQQ’s high (440.37 USD), low (422.67 USD), and close (422.67 USD) from April 4th, adjusted for futures.


  • Entering the week of April 6th, NQ_F likely starts near 18,600-18,650, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 422.67 USD and the sharp 6.2% drop from its April 4th close of 450.66 USD. The RSI is likely deeply oversold after this decline, suggesting a potential bounce if buying volume emerges. However, a break below 18,600 might push prices toward 18,200-18,000, levels aligned with QQQ’s year-low and X sentiment noting a significant sell-off.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The Nasdaq 100 appears to be in an extended corrective wave from a late-February peak near 22,700. A move above 18,900 could signal a relief rally targeting 19,200-19,500, potentially halting the correction. Conversely, a drop below 18,600 might extend the corrective phase, with 18,000 as a downside target, reflecting heightened risk-off sentiment.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

    • Tech earnings drove earlier gains, but late-cycle updates or weaker guidance could exacerbate correction risks, especially after the recent drop. AI and semiconductor sectors remain pivotal, with any developments this week potentially acting as a catalyst.

  • Policy Influence: 

    • Policy announcements related to tech innovation, such as AI infrastructure or regulatory changes, could sway the index. Positive news might counter the current bearish momentum, while uncertainty could deepen selling pressure following the April 4th decline.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Posts on X from late March/early April suggest a cautious market, with the QQQ’s drop from 494.28 USD on March 25th to 422.67 USD on April 4th intensifying bearish sentiment. Some traders see 413-420 USD (NQ_F ~18,400-18,600) as a dip-buying zone, while others warn of further downside if support fails.


Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 430 and 435, reflecting expectations of a recovery toward NQ_F 19,200-19,500 (QQQ ~430-435 USD) if bullish momentum emerges. These strikes, though out of the money given the current 422.67 USD price, could see interest if a rebound occurs.

    • Lower strikes (e.g., 425-428) are active on X as potential bounce points, aligning with traders positioning for a near-term recovery from 422.67 USD.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 420 and 415, aligning with NQ_F support around 18,600-18,400 (QQQ ~420-415 USD). These levels likely saw heightened activity as hedges or bearish bets after the April 4th drop, with X posts reinforcing 413.07 USD (QQQ’s year-low) as a critical hold zone.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for QQQ options is likely sharply elevated after the 6.2% drop on April 4th, reflecting heightened uncertainty. X sentiment suggests a mix of panic and cautious optimism, with some traders anticipating a rebound from oversold conditions, though volatility underscores broader market unease.


Conclusion:

For the week of April 6th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 faces a critical moment with NQ_F starting near 18,600, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 422.67 USD. A break above 18,900 could trigger a relief rally toward 19,200-19,500, supported by call option interest at 430-435 for QQQ, potentially driven by positive tech developments or policy news. However, if support at 18,600 fails, a deeper correction toward 18,200-18,000 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 420-415 and X sentiment marking QQQ’s year-low of 413.07 USD as a key threshold. The options market and posts on X reflect a volatile landscape post the April 4th drop, with traders split between recovery hopes and downside fears. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside earnings, policy updates, and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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