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Nasdaq 100 Weekly Market Insights - Week of April 13th

  • Writer: Mike
    Mike
  • Apr 12
  • 4 min read

Market Analysis for Nasdaq 100 for the Week of April 13th, 2025


Overview:

As of April 12th, 2025, at 9:49 AM PDT, the Nasdaq 100 enters the week of April 13th amid significant market turmoil following a sharp sell-off in early April. Real-time data shows the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) at 454.40 USD, up from its April 11th close of 446.18 USD, reflecting a volatile recovery attempt after a steep decline from 494.28 USD on March 25th. The sell-off was largely driven by policy uncertainty under the Trump administration, particularly tariff fears, alongside concerns over tech earnings and macroeconomic pressures. This analysis incorporates the latest price action, sentiment from posts on X, and expectations for key economic data (e.g., CPI, retail sales) and policy developments.


Technical Analysis:

  • Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance Levels:

      • 19,300 (immediate resistance, aligning with QQQ’s recent highs around 460-465 USD adjusted for futures)

      • 19,600 (strong resistance, corresponds to QQQ’s prior consolidation near 475-480 USD)

      • 20,000 (major resistance, a critical level to reclaim for bullish momentum, near QQQ’s late-March highs around 490-500 USD)

    • Support Levels: 

      • 19,000 (key near-term support, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 454.40 USD and recent low of 441.33 USD on April 11th)

      • 18,800 (potential support, slightly below QQQ’s year-low of 402.39 USD)

      • 18,600 (deeper correction level if breached, a technical floor)

      • 18,400 (significant downside target if selling resumes)

    • Pivots: 

      • Weekly Pivot around 19,150, based on QQQ’s April 11th metrics (high 455.79 USD, low 441.33 USD, close 454.40 USD), adjusted for futures.


    Entering the week of April 13th, NQ_F likely starts near 19,000-19,100, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 454.40 USD, which marks a recovery from the April 11th low but remains fragile. Posts on X suggest an oversold RSI (~45-50), hinting at a potential relief rally if buying volume sustains. However, a break below 19,000 could drive prices toward 18,600-18,400, aligning with QQQ’s year-low and sentiment noting a bearish bias if supports fail.


  • Elliott Wave & Trend Analysis:

    • The Nasdaq 100 is likely in an extended corrective wave from a late-February peak near 22,700. A move above 19,300 could signal a relief rally targeting 19,600-20,000, potentially pausing the correction. Conversely, a drop below 19,000 might confirm a deeper corrective phase, with 18,400 as a downside target,

      reflecting ongoing risk-off sentiment.


Fundamental Outlook:

  • Tech Sector Earnings and AI Developments: 

    • Tech earnings, a key driver of earlier gains, face scrutiny amid tariff-related cost concerns and mixed guidance. Posts on X highlight the QQQ’s vulnerability to trade policy shocks, with the April sell-off erasing significant yearly gains. Positive developments in AI or semiconductors could support a rebound, but downside risks persist if earnings disappoint further.

  • Policy Influence: 

    • Tariff uncertainty, particularly Trump’s trade policies, has been a primary catalyst for the recent decline, with X posts citing fears of escalating US-China trade tensions. A reported 90-day tariff pause announcement sparked a brief rally, but uncertainty lingers. Clarity on trade or monetary policy this week could stabilize markets, while escalation might deepen the correction.

  • Market Sentiment: 

    • Sentiment on X is mixed, with QQQ’s range of 410.18-466.06 USD last week reflecting intense volatility. Some traders see 402-440 USD (NQ_F ~18,800-19,000) as a dip-buying zone, while others warn of further downside to 400 USD (NQ_F ~18,600) if supports break, with the VIX indicating elevated fear (recent range 26.54-48.05).


Options Chain Data for QQQ ETF:

  • Call Options: 

    • High open interest at strike prices of 460 and 465, reflecting expectations of a recovery toward NQ_F 19,600-20,000 (QQQ ~460-465 USD) if a relief rally occurs. These strikes are slightly out of the money given QQQ’s current 454.40 USD price but align with X sentiment anticipating an oversold bounce.

    • Lower strikes (e.g., 455-458) are active as near-term bounce points, with traders positioning for a recovery from 454.40 USD, per X posts.

  • Put Options: 

    • Significant open interest at 450 and 445, aligning with NQ_F support around 19,000-18,800 (QQQ ~450-445 USD). These levels likely saw heightened activity as hedges or bearish bets during the recent sell-off, with X posts noting 441.33 USD (April 11th low) and 402.39 USD (year-low) as critical hold zones.

  • Volatility: 

    • Implied volatility for QQQ options is elevated, reflecting uncertainty after the early April drop. Posts on X suggest high put/call ratios and a bearish bias, though some traders see potential for a reversal if supports hold, with volatility metrics indicating a nervous market.


Conclusion:

For the week of April 13th, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 is at a critical juncture with NQ_F starting near 19,000, reflecting QQQ’s current price of 454.40 USD. A break above 19,300 could ignite a relief rally toward 19,600-20,000, supported by call option interest at 460-465 for QQQ, potentially driven by positive policy clarity or economic data. However, if support at 19,000 fails, a deeper correction toward 18,600-18,400 could unfold, aligning with put option interest at 450 președinți-445 and X sentiment marking QQQ’s year-low of 402.39 USD as a key threshold. The options market and posts on X reflect a volatile landscape, with traders split between oversold bounce expectations and downside fears amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor these technical levels, alongside earnings, policy updates, and economic indicators, to navigate the week effectively.

 
 
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